Subtraction is the focus of this free agency window for the Habs

July 1, 2023

Free agency opens today, kicking off the sixth window of change for the management duo of Kent Hughes and Jeff Gorton (HuGo) since taking over the Montreal Canadiens.

In the five change windows leading up to this point, Hughes has been able to add some key pieces to the puzzle including Justin Barron, Juraj Slafkovsky, Filip Mesar, Owen Beck, Lane Hutson, Kirby Dach, Michael Matheson, Sean Monahan, Alex Newhook and David Reinbacher. It’s an impressive body of work less than 18 months in.

In this sixth window of change, the period that begins with the opening of free agency and runs until the opening of a new season, the Habs need to turn their attention to subtraction. Further addition of any consequence is severely limited unless they can offload some players and their contracts.

Predictions and outcomes

A quick review of my predictions for the 2023 Entry Draft window of change is in order, because it flows into the work that remains for this new window.

I predicted the Habs would make a trade before the draft was over. Hughes made his deal the day before the draft, trading the 31st and 37th picks to Colorado to acquire the young centreman Alex Newhook. I also predicted the Habs would pick at fifth overall rather than trading up or down, and that a future star would be landed. David Reinbacher is his name, and I expect him to be a star on the Habs blueline for years to come.

The prediction that made the most sense to me was that the Habs would re-sign one more free agent before the draft window ended. I expected that player to be Rafael Harvey-Pinard, but the window is past and there was no new signing to announce. It shouldn’t be long though.

I predicted the Habs would not use a buyout, but may make use of the buyout window. They did not buy out any of the contracts they are saddled with, but they may still take a flyer on one of the newly minted free agents who were bought out by other teams. We will see how that unfolds, but it will be dependent on what know they can offload, in one way or another.

Finally, I predicted the Habs would make a cap-clearing move during the draft window. That did not happen, and little else can happen before training camp opens unless the Habs are able to do a little subtraction.

The free agency period was shaping up to a period of opportunity for the Habs since this summer’s UFA class left much to be desired. But the flat cap resulted in several buyouts and there were 113 restricted free agents who did not receive qualifying offers and have become UFAs. Still, the Habs hope that once the dust of the initial free agent scurry is over, that teams may still come looking for players available in Montreal.

Who are the best targets?

Mike Hoffman

Hoffman definitely does not have a future in Montreal. With one year left on his contract, he has been available for trade since Hughes took over. Hoffman, while already in decline, is a proven goal-scorer. The issue is that when he’s not scoring goals he does not bring much else to the table, and his contract is too rich for that. The Habs know they will have to retain and won’t likely get much, if anything, in return.

The number of available goal scorers is small, and it feels like Hughes will be able to make this the summer when Hoffman moves on. It’s likely going to be a mid- to- late-round draft pick coming back with the Habs retaining salary to make it happen.

Joel Edmundson

Edmundson also has one year left on his contract, and if he could stay healthy until the trade deadline he would fetch a strong return. I wouldn’t take that chance – his injury history is poor and holding out for the best offer could backfire. But he’s also on a decent contract and has value for a team looking for a big defensive defenseman who owns a Stanley Cup ring and can bring leadership.

The first round pick I had hoped for last year this time is no longer a possibility. The health history is too concerning for teams. But perhaps a second rounder and an asset that can be waived is more realistic.

Joel Armia

With two years left on his contract and no evidence that he is close to finding his game again, Hughes would love to move on from this contract. But I imagine the market is currently non-existent. He may more realistically be placed on waivers eventually, with the chips falling as they may. I would be pleasantly surprised to see him dealt and finding a new opportunity, but I’m not holding my breath.

Christian Dvorak

I know this name is out there, but I wonder how much it is driven by those who have not yet caught on that there is no such thing as too many centres. I don’t believe that Hughes feels any necessity to move on from Dvorak because he added two forwards who can play centre and wing. Dvorak also has an eight-team no trade clause kicking in today, and some feel that will drive a trade. Maybe it’s a factor, but it’s only eight teams.

Dvorak is still serviceable, and my expectation is that if he is moved it will be because Hughes has determined he does not fit the identity of the team and that he can get enough for him on a trade. Dvorak will eventually be moved, but his value will be very different at one of the next two trade deadlines. He doesn’t hurt the team in the short term. I’d be in no rush, and I don’t expect Hughes to be.

Brendan Gallagher

This one is the longest shot because it’s the worst contract on the books. While Chicago is busy adding veteran leadership to support their newly acquired youth, wouldn’t it be nice if they (or another team in a similar place in their development) set their sights on Gally? I’d be willing to give up a decent prospect to make that happen. Yes, I’m dreaming.

Is subtraction the best we can hope for?

Kent Hughes will likely have a small number of deals in mind. Laval will need help, so some of those contracts will dribble in. He may also take a cap-friendly flyer on one of those 113 young players needing a new home that he thinks fits with what the Habs are doing. If Hughes is confident he can free up some cap room, there may be a contract or two coming our way.

The most likely outcome for the Habs is a quiet opening to free agency, and perhaps some lower key additions as the popcorn slows down. We have just one summer of precedent, and Hughes pulled off brilliance in the Michael Matheson and Sean Monahan deals. We shouldn’t sleep on the wily GM.