The Habs can have trade success without repeating the “Dach-Newhook”

June 1, 2024

While the 2023-24 Stanley Cup Playoffs drag on, fans of the Montreal Canadiens are already in offseason mode. The four teams that remain have delivered some entertaining hockey, but Habs fans are deep in prospect reviews, mock drafts, and trade proposals. One topic garnering considerable discussion is who the Habs will target in the next Dach-Newhook type trade.

It’s a reasonable discussion. Since assuming leadership of the Montreal Canadiens, the management duo of Kent Hughes and Jeff Gorton have busied themselves trading players that will not be part of the future for assets they can use to obtain players that can be. At their first draft they packaged young defender Alexander Romanov with picks to obtain the big centreman, Kirby Dach. In the days leading up to their second draft, they packaged more picks to acquire an underutilized forward in Alex Newhook.

With a bevy of picks and prospects heading into their third draft, it’s not unreasonable to assume HuGo may be working with their pro scouting team to identify the next young player that a team may be prepared to walk away from for a lucrative futures-based offer. But it’s possible we may be typecasting HuGo a little.

In their end-of-season media availability, HuGo gave some hints as to what the Habs might be looking for this summer. Here are some trade concepts, based on those hints, that do not fit the Dach-Newhook model but may advance the rebuild.

The Habs need to get more physical.

Kent Hughes didn’t exactly spill the Caramilk secret here, but the perceived need for the smallish Habs to add physicality to the line-up is significant enough that it was a key message in the presser. Dach’s return from injury will help that. If Luke Tuch can reach his ceiling by the time the window opens, he will help that. No doubt we will see evidence of that identified need in the draft selections.

What if Kent Hughes believes they could benefit from spending from an area of strength to add some physicality that can help immediately next season and give the kids some space to cook in Laval? We have assumed some of the young defenders were available to package for a goal-scorer, but the Habs have enough depth there to use them as trade chips in multiple ways.

Here’s a proposal. The Montreal Canadiens trade Johnathan Kovacevic to the Vegas Golden Knights for Nicolas Roy.

In this trade the Habs gain a big and physical power forward who can play on your third line and in all situations. The Quebec-born Stanley Cup winner is 27 years old and under contract for another three seasons with an AAV of $3M. Vegas gains cap space and a young and cheap right-shot defender. Hughes can throw in a pick or a prospect to make the deal more even, but we also know Vegas can be ruthless in offloading players when they need to make room, and we also know they are motivated to sign Marchessault.

The Habs would take the opportunity to free up cap space if it became available.

Kent Hughes said a couple of interesting things at the end of the season that I am adding up in a way that may not be in the GM’s shiny head for one second. He said this summer would be important, but that next summer will be even more important. It doesn’t take many leaps to make the connections between some cap space opening up at the time that the core is truly entering their prime.

The second thing he said got less attention, and this is where my reading between the lines takes a leap. The discussion revolved around players learning Martin St. Louis’ concepts and the team growing into the mold that they want. Hughes made a comment about players who have demonstrated they can’t adapt to the way the Habs want to play.

Josh Anderson has had two years under Marty, and I think we would have to say he has deteriorated in a style that doesn’t match his strengths. I believe that Hughes will work very hard this summer to find a new home for Anderson.

Where might the struggling power forward fit? Anderson will still appeal to a team looking for a physical player who can add secondary scoring and who ups his game for the playoffs. Carolina and New Jersey could use some grit. I think Anderson would fit under Berube in Toronto if they had the cap space. Lou Lamoriello probably still has a place in his heart for a guy like Anderson. Winnipeg might also be a fit, as might any team with a player asking to be dealt.

Here’s a proposal. The Montreal Canadiens trade Josh Anderson to the Los Angeles Kings for Arthur Kaliyev.

The Kings are looking for help on the right wing, and some physicality, and they have a guy on staff who knows Anderson can fill that hole when he’s at his peak. They can afford him, and won’t mind giving up a player that hasn’t worked out in the City of Angels. The Habs find cap space, and land a player with size and skill who may turn it around in a new setting.

The Habs need to add goal scoring.

Here is an example of Hughes stating the obvious. Of course, this is exactly what Hughes did when he added both Dach and Newhook. But in those cases he was taking a bit of a risk that guys who were not working out with the teams that drafted them would do better in Montreal. In both cases, despite injuries, the risk seems to have paid off.

This summer HuGo will want to add an established goal scorer, and the price will reflect that status, both in terms of the acquisition cost and the contract. The names are out there for all to consider.

Martin Necas would be a great fit in Montreal – he’s big, skilled, established as a goal scorer and probably available. He’s also a target for a list of teams and that means a bidding war. With the history between the Habs and Canes, I’m not counting on seeing Necas in a Canadiens jersey.

Patrick Laine is interesting – not long removed from being an elite goal scorer and currently shrouded in just enough question marks to raise doubts but not enough to significantly drop the asking price. He’s a risk, but perhaps a risk worth taking if Hughes can get somewhat fair value.

Everyone is sure that Mitch Marner is being traded this summer. Whatever we think of his playoff performance, Marner is an elite scorer. But make no mistake, the Leafs will be looking for a haul while also filling holes on D and in net. In the meanwhile, the acquiring team gets one year of certainty with free agency around the corner for Marner. it feels unlikely.

Here’s the proposal. The Montreal Canadiens trade Joel Armia, Jordan Harris, Owen Beck and Winnipeg’s first round pick to the Anaheim Ducks for Trevor Zegras.

It’s a significant package and it’s probably not enough. All of the players I’ve named could help the Habs, but acquiring any of them will mean giving up a name that will make fans uncomfortable.

The trade plan is likely tied up in what unfolds at the draft.

If the player they love is gone at five, might the Habs trade down for two first rounders if they believe they can still draft a top six forward while also landing another first round pick to improve their package for an elite goal scorer?

Would they trade the fifth overall pick if the package coming back included a proven scorer?

The combine is coming up this week, and that will likely result in some additional intelligence on who the Habs might target at the draft. It might also be an opportunity for conversations between management groups. But clarity will not likely come until the teams gather in Vegas.

I’m expecting some draft floor drama, and it can’t come soon enough.