Checking in on the Habs progress against the McGuire Profile

August 24, 2024

On April 20, 2023 I wrote an article assessing where the Montreal Canadiens were in their development against what I named the McGuire Profile. The McGuire Profile is a 7-player profile which hockey analyst Pierre McGuire says was developed based on conversations with Scotty Bowman. The profile identifies seven essential pieces to build a Stanley Cup contender.

16 months later, the management duo of Kent Hughes and Jeff Gorton have done considerable work, and it’s time to consider the progress made toward the McGuire Profile.

The 7-Player Profile

According to McGuire, the seven players that should be present on any team striving to be a Cup contender include a number 1 all-star centre, a number 2 all-star centre, a top power forward, a specialist/utility player/agitator/shutdown centre, an all-star offensive defenseman, a top shutdown defenseman, and an all-star goalie.

Like the original, this article won’t debate the wisdom of the list, but rather assess the Montreal Canadiens against it and consider where the Habs might need to improve. In each area look for a grade of Achieved, TBD (to be determined), or Gap.

Target 1: A number 1 all-star centre

In the original article, I gave a grade of “Achieved with room for improvement” on this target. I anticipated that Nick Suzuki would achieve an 80 point season while facing top lines night after night, making him a legitimate first line centreman. In the 2023-24 season, Suzuki came close, scoring 33 goals and 44 assists for 77 points.

In my mind, Suzuki has already made his 1C case. But he’s still getting better and, when surrounded by high end talent, I have no doubt this target will be a no brainer.

Is there room for improvement? Always. If there is ever a day that the Habs have a centreman they can play ahead of Suzuki and make #14 their number two, they will almost certainly hoist a Cup. I also think they can do it with Suzuki in the 1C position.

Grade: Achieved

Target 2: A number 2 all-star centre

In the original article, I gave a grade of “Achieved” in this area on the assumption that Suzuki was already an all-star 2C. But I also raised the possibility that Kirby Dach could develop into a first or second line centreman. A year later, Suzuki is the confirmed 1C, but the jury is still out on Dach because of his lost season.

Last year, I wrote that obtaining another centreman was a priority for the Habs. Dach may yet become an all-star 2C, but the pre-draft trade to move up and select Michael Hage was a good one. There are some who believe Owen Beck has a 2C ceiling.

This week the Canadiens released draft footage that revealed the Habs were discussing how their 2024 fifth overall pick, Ivan Demidov, performed as a centreman. This is a wild card that blows the rest of it out of the water.

Grade: TBD

Target 3: A top power forward

In the original article, I gave this target a grade of “TBD”. Juraj Slafkovsky had just finished his rookie season and was looking very much like a rookie.

Slafkovsky’s sophomore season removed any doubt in this area. We should expect ebbs and flows in his ongoing development, but there is every indication that Slafkovsky will develop into the top power forward the Habs envisioned when they selected him first overall at the 2022 draft.

Grade: Achieved

Target 4: A specialist/utility player/agitator/shutdown centre

In the original article, this target received an “Achieved” grade on Cole Caufield’s status as a power play specialist alone. Caufield continues to fill this role, but there have been improvements since then.

Adding an elite goal-scoring forward like Demidov changes everything, regardless of what forward position he ultimately plays.

Patrik Laine is not the prototypical power forward, perhaps, but he is a big man who is strong on the puck, can play physical, and is an elite goal scorer when at his best. He also gives the Habs two power play specialists on their roster.

Alex Newhook can play in the top six as a winger, or fill the third line centreman role. I think his value to the Habs may be his strength as a utility player.

I’m not sure if McGuire intended for the agitator to be a forward, but Arber Xhekaj sure fits the bill. His younger brother Florian is being developed as a bottom six agitator for the Habs.

Owen Beck is a promising option to become the third line shutdown centreman.

Grade: Achieved

Target 5: An all-star offensive defenseman

In the original article, the grade was TBD. This is still an area of development but it would be unfair to understate Michael Matheson’s season. 11 goals and 51 assists for 62 points in 82 games is solid work. He was scoring at a similar pace in the previous injury-shortened season. The question that no one is asking, but probably should, is what Matheson could have accomplished with a legitimate top pair defenseman playing beside him.

Of course, in the offensive defenseman category all eyes are on Lane Hutson. He played just two games after turning pro late last season, but he looked good. If he can reach his full potential, there will be no doubts in this category for a long time.

Grade: Achieved

Target 6: A top shutdown defenseman

In the original article I gave this category a grade of “TBD and possibly a Gap”. Kaiden Guhle was identified as the most likely candidate to become a top pair shutdown defenseman. It was noted that “both guys with potential to be their top offensive defenders are left-shot. Guhle is also a LHD. There is no ideal RHD partner to complement them.”

I also wrote this…

“The priority target, in my view, is a top-pair, complete, right-handed defenseman who can both complement Matheson and/or Hutson and pair with a guy like Guhle late in games to play the shutdown role. Rumours have suggested that the Habs have such a player in their sights in David Reinbacher. He is the top defender in the draft and is already looking solid while playing against men in the Swiss National League.”

We know how that played out, and now we will wait to see if Reinbacher develops into a top shutdown defenseman for the Habs.

Grade: TBD

Target 7: An all-star goalie

In the original article, the grade was “Gap”. Jake Allen was understood to be a placeholder. Sam Montembeault was showing potential but was still unproven. Cayden Primeau’s future in Montreal was up in the air.

Since then, Allen has been dealt, Monty claimed the starter’s net, and Primeau was given the back-up role and a chance to prove himself. But the Habs also left the 2023 draft with three goaltending prospects in Jacob Fowler, Quentin Miller and Yevgeni Volokhin. Fowler looks to be most promising after an excellent rookie season in the NCAA.

Grade: TBD

What remains?

The assessment based on the McGuire 7-Player Profile reveals that the work HuGo has done to date hits the seven identified targets. The most important thing from here is to give the acquired assets every opportunity to reach their ceiling.

What does that look like?

In the centreman category, giving Nick Suzuki an environment to flourish is vital. That means skilled wingers who can play with him, but it also means a legit second line following him. Adding Patrik Laine this past week is responsive to this priority.

The Habs also need to be investing in multiple concurrent plans to secure a second top six centre. Dach will be given room to prove himself. Beck and Hage will be strongly supported in their development. Perhaps even Demidov will be explored.

In the power forward category, the priority is to give Slafkovsky every opportunity to succeed. Perhaps he will benefit from Dach’s return and Laine’s addition. Three big men in the top six is a beautiful thing.

The Habs are in good shape in the specialist category. Finding an agitator that can bring some physicality to the lineup is something they may want to prioritize.

Where the defenders are concerned, the Habs need to use their time wisely. The kids need opportunities to grow and the leadership needs time to assess them and decide how the D core will look for the long haul. The blue line needs to be defined and season in sync with when the forward group is nearing their prime.

Hutson will need to be given some opportunities that would have gone to Matheson. Savard will eventually have to go to make room for Reinbacher and Mailloux. The profile is in the system, but they need games to mature.

In the goalie category, the Habs should keep their options open. Netminders are weird and they often develop late and rarely in a straight line.

The seven pieces of the McGuire Profile are in the Habs system. Now we wait for maturation and refinement and, of course, improvements wherever HuGo sees fit as the team gets closer.