In the Carrier deal, the Habs chose predictability over potential

December 19, 2024

The pending Christmas roster freeze for the 2024-25 season has felt a little like trade deadline, and the Montreal Canadiens got in on the action. On Wednesday night, the Habs traded Justin Barron to the Nashville Predators for Alexandre Carrier. Carrier is currently in year one of a three-year contract that carries a cap hit of $3.75M.

The trade was a decision to add some predictability on D.

It’s a very young defense group, and the kids on the right side were not ready. The Canadiens have a very young group overall, but the left shot defenders are rising to it. Kaiden Guhle is solid, Lane Hutson looks like an NHL-ready star on the rise, Arber Xhekaj has settled down and settled in to a third pair fixture. We have not even mentioned the veteran, Michael Matheson, or Jayden Struble as an admirable extra. The left side is coming along nicely.

The right side, on the other hand, has been an adventure. David Savard is a mature and stabilizing force, but he’s also aging and slowing down, and he’s a pending unrestricted free agent. The only other right shot defender on the roster was Justin Barron.

GM Kent Hughes traded away Jonathan Kovacevic in the summer, freeing up space for Barron or another right shot defenseman, Logan Mailloux, to claim. Mailloux wasn’t ready and was returned to Laval for seasoning, where he has not made a case that his defensive game is ready for the big show. Barron also didn’t rise to the challenge to give Hughes confidence that he would grow in to the NHL role in short order.

The result, on many nights, was the coach’s decision to ice five left shots on the blue line, and this was less than ideal. Martin St. Louis acknowledged this challenge publicly.

Barron ran out of runway.

The roster spot was opened for him, and Barron didn’t claim it. That’s not to say he couldn’t have done if given enough time, but the decision to trade him means Hughes came to the conclusion that he was prepared to take the risk that Barron would someday shine elsewhere in order to add some maturity to his blue line.

Barron ran out of time to prove himself, but that doesn’t mean he won’t. We know defensemen generally need more time to reach their ceiling, and Barron may still get there. But the Habs have another first rounder who is a right shot defender still trying to prove himself, and that guy is waiver eligible.

With Mailloux waiting in the wings, and able to develop in Laval, the risk was minimized with trading Barron.

Barron’s timidity probably hurt him.

He’s a big man, but he plays small. There is no doubt he was given this message – after a game or two in the press box he was inclined to throw some hits when he returned. But his hesitancy to take a big hit in order to make an important play became too visible too often.

If the decision was between Barron and Mailloux – both of them offensive defenders who are weak in their own end – you can see the logic in keeping the more physical player. Add that to the waivers issue, and the decision was easy.

The trade doesn’t mean the Lehkonen deal was a flop.

Hindsight is 20-20, as they say. Barron didn’t work out in Montreal, but that doesn’t mean the deal was a bad one. I’ll let Rick explain.

I know some of you loved Artturi Lehkonen. So did I. But he had never reached his potential in Montreal, he was a pending free agent, and the Habs were entering a rebuild. Trading him was the correct call. They targeted a clear team need who was a first round pick and got a second round pick in addition. That’s the risk you take in rebuild trades. This is not a hard concept.

Hughes didn’t make the trade to correct an error. He made the trade because he was prepared to use a previously acquired asset to fill the same hole he was trying to fill in the initial trade.

A swing that is not a homerun is not always a miss. Sometimes you can get the win playing small ball.

Carrier will be appreciated by fans if their expectations are smart.

The player the Canadiens dealt for is a local kid – he can walk to the Bell Centre from his Montreal home – who is in his prime and under a reasonable contract for two years beyond this one. He is a minute muncher who will play in the top four in Montreal, and will be a solid defender and penalty killer. He has a heavy shot from the point, which the Habs currently lack. But no one should expect Alexandre Carrier to take fans out of their seats on the regular.

The Habs bought stability, not sensationalism.

They also bought a placeholder to buy some time until Mailloux and David Reinbacher are ready. For those inclined to challenge the rebuild commitment, this deal is future focused in that it does not rush kids who are not ready.

This trade has implications for the trade deadline.

David Savard is a pending unrestricted free agent, and pundits assume that he will be available at the trade deadline. Adding Carrier on the right side frees them to deal Savard to the highest bidder.

Not so fast.

Savard’s star is not exactly rising. Tampa Bay won’t pay a premium for him this time around. There will be a real question for Hughes & Co. to consider of whether the return for Savard is worth as much to them as keeping him, and perhaps re-signing him on a low-risk contract as their 6-7 D-man. Savard’s presence doesn’t block any of the kids as they’re ready for promotion.

Do you know who else has been playing right side who may fetch a lot more? I would argue that the acquisition of Carrier frees the Habs to trade Michael Matheson. The left side is strong, and Matheson has not looked great on the right. Carrier replaces him there. On the left side, Matheson has already been replaced by Hutson.

It’s possible that the Habs will trade neither of them when March rolls around, but Matheson is the guy that fetches them more.

The Habs got into some pre-Christmas action, and I suspect this is a deal that will pay off, both immediately and in future transactions.