April 17, 2024
The Montreal Canadiens played their final nine games of the season between April 2-16. The outcomes included a 5-3 win over Florida, a 7-4 loss to Tampa Bay, a 4-2 loss to the Leafs, a 5-2 loss to the Rangers, a 9-3 win over Philadelphia, a 3-2 overtime loss to the Islanders, a 5-4 overtime loss to Ottawa, and a home-and-home against Detroit that ended with an overtime loss and a shootout loss.
In their last nine games they went 2-3-4. Here’s how I saw things go down with the Habs season coming to an end.
The image of the forward core is emerging.
Five forwards are as good as certain. Nick Suzuki has emerged as a first-line centeman. Juraj Slafkovsky is showing why the Canadiens wanted him with the first overall pick in 2022. Cole Caufield has grown into a more complete player without losing his scoring touch. Alex Newhook has emerged as a utility player who can play any forward position and is a lock for the middle six. The second line centreman role is Kirby Dach’s to lose.
Those are five forwards and three are NHL centremen. In the meanwhile, before he was injured Joshua Roy was proving himself as an NHLer. Owen Beck and Filip Mesar are leading their teams in the Ontario Hockey League. All three intend to eventually ink their names in a top-nine spot in Montreal.
High end talent will also be added at the draft, one by way of selection, and another likely via trade in the draft window. By next year this time, the forward group is going to be clear for the window of contention.
The defense core is a little more tangly.
Michael Matheson has had the kind of season that makes him very tradable, and at the same time makes Hughes think twice and thrice before entertaining the notion. He’s just turned 30, plays the kind of game that can be sustained well into his 30s, and has just had a career year while on a team-friendly contract. I don’t believe he is going anywhere.
Then there is David Savard, who was coveted by some teams at the trade deadline, but not enough to pay what Kent Hughes thought he was worth. It’s hard to say what that means. Is he available in the summer, or will he continue to provide a veteran presence into the last year of his contract?
This week two kids – Lane Hutson and Logan Mailloux – made their debut with the Habs. They will soon be regulars in Montreal. Kaiden Guhle and David Reinbacher are part of the future.
Where does that leave everyone else? Barron, Xhekaj, Harris, Struble and Kovacevic. All NHLers. Hughes is on the record as saying he wants to see more of his D group before making decisions, but that is a very crowded blue line. Of course there is the option to let some kids cook in Laval, but it feels like something will have to give here in the off-season.
The Habs are set in net.
The season ended with Sam Montembeault and Cayden Primeau splitting net duties and producing decent numbers. If either of these guys had been available to back up Carey Price during his prime, his tenure may have been extended.
These two are likely to be the tandem for the short term, at least until they are unseated by one or more of Jacob Fowler, Jakub Dobes, or Yevgeni Volokhin. Was it just last summer that fans were asking for a trade for Carter Hart? Seems like a lifetime ago, doesn’t it?
For some guys, the writing is on the wall.
Tanner Pearson played just enough games down the stretch to satisfy his coach’s belief that no one player should sit too long.
After the trade of Sean Monahan the Habs were short on centre depth and, after a cup of coffee for Brandon Gignac, Colin White was claimed off waivers. He became the healthy scratch as soon as Christian Dvorak was healthy. White’s time in Montreal was unimpressive.
Chris Wideman did not see one game of action this season, and his NHL career has ended.
Remarkably, these three are the only unrestricted free agents on the Habs roster, and we should expect to see none of them return next year.
Jesse Ylonen is a restricted free agent who did not exactly take advantage of the opportunities he was given this season. No one will be shocked if his days in Montreal are numbered.
Decisions loom for some longstanding veterans.
Brendan Gallagher is the most unwieldy of the contracts Hughes inherited from Marc Bergevin. Gally can never live up to that cap hit at this stage of his career – he was doing that for much less coin during his prime years. But he has found a way to make himself useful, at least as long as his body holds up. Gally will be back next year.
Josh Anderson is another guy not living up to a contract that is not moveable for value at this point. I still believe there are GMs out there who value what he brings, and who suspect he can look good again in a north-south system. Perhaps with salary retention, or if Hughes is willing to take back a bad contract, Anderson may find a new home this summer. It will take some creativity, but the jig might be up for Andy.
Christian Dvorak has never played as well in Montreal as he did in Arizona. With one year left on his contract, he can be dealt. The question will be whether that happens in the summer or at the trade deadline. With Beck knocking on the door, and Newhook showing he can play the 3C role, an off-season move isn’t out of the question.
Imagine Hughes adds two top-six guys this summer to play with Dach and next year’s third line is some combination of Newhook, Gallagher, Armia and Roy.
Joel Armia has value again! He may be the player who is easiest for Hughes to move this summer, but the motivation to offload him is no longer there. With one year left on the contract, and Armia experiencing a renaissance, there is no pressure to move him. But if Hughes wants to open a roster spot for a young player, Armia may be his easiest chip to make that happen.
Some players should not be getting too attached to their chair.
I once had a senior manager who used to say that. “Don’t get too attached to your chair.” As you might imagine, she was a real inspiration for young employees.
Jake Evans, Michael Pezzetta and Rafael Harvey-Pinard are all under contract for next year, but not one of them is irreplaceable. Evans finished the season on a strong note, and is the player with the most value to both the Habs and other clubs. Pezzetta is what he is – a low maintenance option for the 13-14 role. RHP’s season is kindly described as underwhelming. These are fourth line players, and with prospects on the rise there is no guarantee any of them is in a Habs jersey next season.
Martin St. Louis will be around to grow into contention.
This week I was listening to Craig Button talk about all coaches having a shelf life. The message eventually gets old, no matter who you are. I believe that for the vast majority of coaches.
But I also believe there are special personalities who defy that principle. They don’t come along very often, but here’s hoping Marty is one of them.
While some complain that the rebuild is taking too long, a retrospective look confirms consistent transformation since HuGo took over.
They have had three trade deadlines, two drafts and two free agency periods to work with, and the management duo of Kent Hughes and Jeff Gorton have been active in every window. Looking at the seven windows of change, we might be able to predict some of what is to come in the off-season.
The draft and the weeks leading up to it is the next window of change and, based on past behavior, we can take some educated guesses at what is to come. Firstly, we can expect the top 10 pick will be used on the player HuGo feels will most move the needle for the Habs for the next decade. They won’t be swayed by public opinion, shiny toys, or quick fixes. Of course, that is as much as we can predict until we know the outcome of the draft lottery.
The second thing we should look for is a trade where the Habs package a collection of assets to land an NHL-ready player, as they did to acquire Dach in 2022 and Newhook in 2023.
Finally, we can expect the Habs to use some of their picks to take a swing for the fences. The guy that comes to mind is Florian Xhekaj, but can you believe they were the first to take a chance on Lane Hutson?
It’s officially the off-season for the Montreal Canadiens and it’s time for HuGo to shine in what may be the most important off-season of his tenure. If he shines enough, this may be the last season under this regime where we’re longing for the offseason.
Hab At Her 
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