Five Predictions for the 5th Window of Change Under HuGo

June 15, 2023

It’s the most wonderful time of the year! There should be a soundtrack – a collection of familiar tunes to mark the lead up to one of the best parts of the hockey calendar. Of course, I’m referring to the NHL Entry Draft window.

The draft will get underway on Wednesday, June 28th in Nashville. The days between the end of the Stanley Cup Final and the end of the draft are always a time of peak business in the NHL and this year will not be different.

This is the fifth window of change for the management duo of Kent Hughes and Jeff Gorton (HuGo) since taking over the Montreal Canadiens. At the 2022 Trade Deadline, they acquired draft assets in deals for veterans, one of which is Florida’s first rounder in this draft. At the 2022 draft, they added Juraj Slafkovsky, Filip Mesar, Owen Beck and Lane Hutson, while also dealing for Kirby Dach.

In the third window of change – Free Agency 2022 – the Habs were able to deal Jeff Petry for Michael Matheson after the free agent defender market dried up, and added another first round pick for taking on the contract of Sean Monahan. Injuries hindered HuGo’s ability to make the most of the 2023 trade deadline, the fourth window of change.

Here are my predictions for the 2023 Entry Draft window of change.

The Habs will not utilize a buyout, but they may make use of the buyout window.

The buyout window opens on Friday and will remain open until the end of June. There is simply no one on the Habs roster that makes sense for Kent Hughes to buy out.

The nastiest contract – Brendan Gallagher’s – would hurt the team for years in a buyout. With just one year on Mike Hoffman’s contract, and a year where they will still be building, a buyout is not worth another year of penalty. There may be some merit in a Joel Armia buyout, but perhaps more so next summer if another solution has not been found.

I’m watching for Hughes to capitalize on the buyout window in other ways. Will there be a young player, much like Colin White last summer, who is bought out by his team and might be attained for a bargain? Is there a team considering a buyout who might prefer to make a trade, and where the Habs might pull off a Sean Monahan deal?

The Habs will make a cap-clearing move during the draft window of change.

This may be an ironic follow up to my first prediction, but there it is. I predict they will find some cap space via trade – Joel Edmundson, Christian Dvorak and Jake Evans are guys I’m watching – while also potentially weaponizing cap space.

The Habs will make at least one hockey trade before the draft is over.

I don’t necessarily mean Pierre-Luc Dubois. It might feel like I’m stating the obvious, but I’m not at all convinced PLD is landing in Montreal since he opened the door to a bidding war. I do believe Hughes will do all that is reasonable to add Dubois to the Habs, but if it goes off the rails he won’t be immobilized by it. The assets in the Habs stockpile can be used in more ways than one, and I believe Hughes is primed to deal.

The Habs will sign another restricted free agent before the end of June.

Denis Gurianov, Rafael Harvey-Pinard, Lucas Condotta, Mitchell Stephens, Joel Teasdale, Jesse Ylonen and Nicolas Beaudin. Seven RFAs on the books that the Habs will have to make decisions about. Not all of them will receive qualifying offers before the end of the month. Some of them will play elsewhere next year.

My prediction is that RHP will be re-signed before a QO is required.

The Habs will pick at 5th overall.

Do folks really believe Kent Hughes is trying to trade up or down because he doesn’t want to deal with the Michkov headache? Of course he’s doing due diligence to try and nab the most lucrative positioning for the Habs, but he’s not trying to avoid a decision. This is the guy whose first deal was to trade fan favourite Tyler Toffoli, and who made noise at his first draft to land Kirby Dach. Hughes is not afraid of taking risks, and he’s not running a poll to see how you or I feel about it.

The reality is that trading into the top 5 is as rare as hen’s teeth. Trading down is more likely, but unlikely to unfold until the draft floor when it is obvious who the first four teams select.

My prediction is that Hughes will take to the stage in the order the draft lottery determined, and select a player that will be a star for the Habs for years to come… just like he did last year.