November 26, 2023
The Montreal Canadiens were on their California road trip this past week, with three games scheduled. On Wednesday night, they delivered a 4-3 win over the Anaheim Ducks. They eked out a 3-2 shootout win against the lowly San Jose Sharks on Friday afternoon. Then on Saturday afternoon they were completely outmatched against the Los Angeles Kings in a 4-0 shutout loss. Here are my thoughts on the Habs after 21 games.
For all the talking Martin St. Louis does about balance, he sometimes misses the mark himself.
Coaches and GMs all have their buzzwords. It’s funny how when you dislike the individual the buzzwords become tedious (character and attitude come to mind), but when you respect someone even the buzzwords are easier to appreciate. Marty likes the word balance. He uses it to refer to balance on the ice, and the players seem to get what he means and use the word themselves, even if they have varying results at doing it.
There is one area of Marty’s coaching game where I would like to see him find some balance. I’m referring to how he balances usage of veterans versus young players. Josh Anderson has earned his way off the power play and, frankly, well out of the top six (or nine?). I get trying to get a big contract going, but perhaps fourth line or press box duty is your next tactic. Brendan Gallagher, in his best years, never exactly ripped it up on the power play. Tanner Pearson has performed above expectations, but he’s levelled off.
Slaf has been forcing Marty’s hand to give him more, and the Friday shootout opportunity may be evidence that Marty knows what he has in Ylonen. But it’s time for those two to get increased opportunities – they have both earned it. It’s time for Marty to get that balance right.
Alex Newhook looks to be a solid middle-six winger.
One of the lowlights of this past year for the Montreal Canadiens was when the 2023 draft took on a sour note. Leading up to the draft, the Habs had a ton of picks to use and were selecting at fifth overall. But before it was all said and done, fans who said they were all-in for a rebuild were revealing their truth – we’re all in if you do it our way. Patience was exhausted after little more than a year.
They will point to the Habs missing out on that no-brainer elite Russian forward, or the perceived duds they picked in the six rounds that followed, with little self-reflection about how much data (and I don’t mean analytics) they might be missing. But I suspect the milk had already begun to curdle when a pre-draft trade was announced. The Canadiens acquired Alex Newhook from the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for a first-round draft pick (31st overall), a second-round draft pick (37th overall), and prospect Gianni Fairbrother.
The irony is dripping everywhere. Despite how good Kirby Dach had looked after being nabbed from his draft team that had given up on him, fans could not see a potential similar outcome for a 22-year-old kid who had been selected 16th overall. They preferred to gamble on later picks.
Fast-forward to 21 games in and we have a decent sense of what the Habs purchased with those picks. Newhook looked strong early playing with Dach and Slafkovsky, then struggled when converted to centre after the Dach injury, and is now finding his way on Suzuki’s wing. His two goals on Wednesday has him on pace for 23 goals and 23 assists on the season. That’s a middle six winger. One that allows a team to ice two centreman on one line, and won’t hurt you if he has to move up the line-up. That’s a solid investment.
Jake Allen feels no need to show off for scouts.
Elliotte Friedman got everyone in a frenzy last week when he reported that the Edmonton Oilers are scouting all three goalies in Montreal. Everyone but Jake Allen, that is. The others are motivated to impress the scouts. For Montembeault it’s leverage in contract negotiations, whether with the Canadiens or another team. For Primeau, it’s the opportunity to play on a regular basis.
Jake Allen, on the other hand, is feeling no frenzy in his current set-up. He’s won a Stanley Cup already, he’s on a good contract, he likes his environment, and he’s close to home. If playing lights out and then letting in untimely bananas wasn’t so characteristic of his entire tenure in Montreal, you’d almost think he was not interested in a move to Edmonton. The scouts may have been watching on Sunday, but Allen was not fussed.
For what it’s worth, I think this potential trade between the Habs and Oilers is completely overblown.
American Thanksgiving is past tense, and the Habs look like a low-end bubble team.
We all know the math – since the 2005-2006 season, 75% of teams in a playoff position at American Thanksgiving are there when the post-season rolls around. The other 25% are those bubble teams that compete for the wild card spots to the very end of the first 82.
This morning the Habs are in 13th place in the Eastern conference, but only three points behind Toronto and Detroit for the wild card spots. Of course, those teams have played two less games. Montreal may look like a bubble team in the standings, but watching them barely get past San Jose and then get swallowed alive by the Kings was a good reality check.
This is not a year to go for it, and as much as the players and coach are required to be in it to win it until the schedule expires, the GM knows what’s up. This is a season to sell hard to fetch a haul of assets and open spaces for another crew of kids.
Hab At Her 
Hey Lori, I’ve been meaning to post a comment on Newhook. When the trade happened I posted some skeptical comments about the trade and wanted to acknowledge that his first quarter has been a pleasant surprise. However, I would be hesitant on being critical about the skeptics. Too often, modern sports commentators overblow a small sample size if it supports their POV, and all I want to say now is remember how much Anderson was loved and where we are now? Hopefully Newhook doesn’t go that path. We’ll see how the trade works out in 5 years.
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I’m not sure Anderson was ever loved, but I hear what you mean. Anderson is not likely to go scoreless all season, and if we’re lucky he’ll get red hot in the months leading up to the deadline and they can move him for value.
As for skepticism, I was someone who LOVED the Dach trade and was shocked to see the skeptics on my timeline. I was less in love with the Newhook trade, but I could see what they were doing. They felt the chances of him becoming a solid player at the right time were better than the picks were likely to give. He wouldn’t have been my target.
I don’t agree with all they do, and healthy questioning and challenge is good. But the irrational certainty that fans know best is a little irritating to me at the moment.
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Hi Lori
I think you have it right again. This team is actually doing a little better than I expected and still have so far to go. To me, this is only the first year of the build. Last year was a tear down but we are still left with some veteran contracts that have to be managed. In looking at the current roster I only see 6 players who look like a part of the future core and another 3 or 4 maybes. I’m waiting to see more of our top prospects play in the NHL to decide if the core group expands – like you, I think that elite scoring will have to come by trade. I like our management group and I trust that they’ll keep making magic happen. St-Louis is a great development coach and I’m hoping he continues his hockey career trend of being the best at improving. If so he could become the coach who can lead this team to a Cup.
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The beauty of this management group is that they didn’t wait to completely tear down before they started building up. Adding Dach was brilliant, and Newhook is the kind of player that can serve you well until he is forced down the depth chart by kids added at the draft.
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To me your well founded opinion that this is “not the year to go for it” raises a number of conflicting issues, as do your comments about Allen’s season.
I guess with a “storied” franchise such as the Habs a delicate balance must be achieved between tanking and being seen to be tanking, and tanking and not being seen to be tanking.
For Allen, the suggestion is that he must be seen to always be playing his best while in fact not always playing his best in order to dampen the possibility of a trade he does not want. This despite a short no trade list and a hefty guaranteed contract.
It appears a “rebuild” permits a NHL franchise latitude to play other than it’s best available team and best hockey every game. An extraordinary number of injuries can secure losing “advantageously”, as can perpetually mediocre special teams.
When does a “rebuild” end and the Habs play to win every game?
It is especially galling when, in terms of profits, capital appreciation and annual compensation, the owners, which in the NHL includes the players, do very well, every game, win or lose. Especially in Montreal.
Meanwhile the fans pay the same extraordinarily high prices even when year after year the team is to be polite not a contender.
Showing will the rebuild continue,and, how were the Vegas Knights able to become “contenders” and win a mere 8 years into their existence?
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32 teams can’t be contenders every year. Logically, it should cycle somewhat for every team. The worst is being a middling team who is never a true contender, and never being bad enough to truly focus on the opportunity to become one. Of course the players and coaches will always play to win, but there comes a point in the season where management has to be pragmatic.
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Terrific article once again Lori. The HuGo Team are after Top Nine mid-developed players. Dach’s ceiling is to be determined due to injury but looks very promising due to his high hockey IQ and ability to gain puck control. Newhook is learning and seems willing to grow plus he has one of the greatest skills in his skating. Barron is looking stronger every week. Slaf appears to be gaining confidence week by week. I would not be surprised to see Slaf play a few games at center in 2024. As for the coaching, I am adrift in regards to the TOI for Slaf and Ylonen. It boggles my mind. Thank you for a great overview and well thought out opinions. Cheers. Kerry
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I sure hope management puts less emphasis on winning than development. The odds of making the playoffs, or if successful, accomplishing anything are minuscule. The benefit, in 3 years time, of another top 5 pick OTOH is enormous. You are do right about the lack of patience among fans. Rebuilds can take from 5-10 years and we’re only in year 3. It’s an instant gratification world no matter what fans ‘say’. I must say, though, I do instantly enjoy your articles. 😄👍
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I think a management team has to spend draft picks wisely and acquire talent that is likely to develop and make an impact when the time is right. I think Newhook has the potential to improve beyond what we see today. His blend of skill, speed and work ethic are all valuable commodities in today’s NHL and he is a proven NHL player already; something no one can guarantee those traded picks will ever become.
Some may not like his size but his speed, skill and tenacity are reminiscent of what Paul Byron brought and I for one recall how valuable he was to the team. In my mind one of Mesar, Farrell or Newhook will stay with the team and if the Habs are lucky the other two can eventually be traded to fill other needs. That’s an example of internal competition that is so important to forge a strong team.
The Habs could have at least 3 players now who might one day backfill for Paul Byron, a skilled speedster who played a valuable role for the Habs.
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You’re so right that the #Habs have a ton of developing forward, and not all will land in Montreal. Some of those small, skilled guys will move on. The trick is knowing who to keep and who to trade for value. And I do hope one or two of them has a higher ceiling than Paul Byron, as good as he was.
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Hi Lori, yes hopefully a higher ceiling than Paul Byron but looking at things realistically I think I’d be happy with that comparison and for Slaf I’d be happy with last year’s version of Josh Anderson. In my mind these comparisons represent the floor. If that’s what we get then acquiring these players was not a waste. And more than that would be gravy.
I happen to think that many of the Habs prospects we are all drooling over appear to have pretty decent floors from what I can see of them; could still be only wishful think but these current propects do seem to be more promising.
This is in stark contrast to the preceding decades when very few of our prospects showed any promise once they joined the pro ranks.. I remember names like Danny Kristo, Louis Leblanc, David Fisher, Ben Maxwell, Kyle Chipchura, Corey Urquhart, Marcel Hossa etc and I think I would have been happy to have them to have had a career like Paul Byron for example..So that’s where I’m coming from..
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