The Montreal Canadiens are on the cusp of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Their opponent is the Tampa Bay Lightning, viewed as the favourite in the series on account of their two Stanley Cups won in this decade.
The two teams finished the season with 106 points, with the tiebreaker going to Tampa, and placing them fifth and sixth overall in the league. Despite the tight ranking, many feel the battle tested Lightning will be too much for one of the youngest teams in the league to handle.
But there is a tipping point… where veteran experience gives way to weary legs… and where rookie inexperience gives way to youthful stamina. The thing is, we won’t know until the series is done whether either of the teams are reaching their tipping point.
For now, the popular opinion is that the Habs are the underdog heading into Tampa Bay. Here are five keys to Montreal upsetting Tampa Bay.
The rookie goalies continue to shine.
Is there any doubt the Canadiens would have won the Eastern Conference if they’d had better goaltending early in the season? Since accepting the facts in front of them and turning the net over to the two rookies, goaltending has been a strength.
In the net opposite Dobes and Fowler is a goalie who owns two Stanley Cup rings, along with Conn Smythe and Vézina trophies. Andrei Vasilevskiy is a force to be reckoned with, no doubt.
There is no other position on the roster where veteran versus inexperience is more pronounced. Minimally, Dobes and/or Fowler have to perform well enough that they allow the skaters to determine the games.
The coach finds a productive mix in the middle six.
I use the term “middle six” loosely, since who sees ice on any given night will make it difficult to number the lines. I’m referring to the two lines between the obvious top line and the new shutdown line the coach has created.
Marty’s practice lines had Newhook between Demidov and Texier, a trio he was testing in the final games of the season. His theory is that Newhook and Demidov have chemistry and Texier is skilled at extending time in the offensive zone. The coach is hoping they hit their stride right around dinner time on Sunday.
The other line in the middle six features Kapanen between Dach and Bolduc. A 200-foot rookie centre between two guys with an offensive touch who can also be jerks. Marty seems to be hoping these guys can be an energy line.
Between these six guys and the two guys in the press box, the coach hopes to find some secondary scoring, and effective enough combos to allow him to keep the other two lines intact. His game plan depends on it.
These lines working means he doesn’t have to split up Suzuki, Caufield and Slafkovsky to balance the offense, and he can support that top line with a veteran shutdown line.
The D group holds on until Dobson returns.
This is probably the biggest key. In the pairs we have seen in practice, the Habs have just one right shot and he was brutalized in their one playoff series last season. They also have two guys the coach has not really trusted all year, and a guy who can’t stay healthy. I’m not loving the D group sans Dobson.
If the Habs want a long Spring, they need Noah Dobson. It seems likely that they have to get through the first series without him, and that will be tough.
I would have had Reinbacher in the line-up, but I understand why Marty won’t. The coach is working with a less than ideal situation and the Habs will feel Dobson’s value in this series.
The Habs avoid shrinking or obsessing over physicality.
Last Spring the Washington Capitals turned on the physicality and the Canadiens shrunk. In recent games against Tampa Bay, they have shown they don’t intend to shrink this Spring.
In their effort to push back, the Habs also need to be disciplined and stay out of the penalty box. They also can’t be so focused on the physical stuff that they are thrown off their own style of play. The kids won’t be able to out-skate the vets if they spend too much time in scrums.
The veteran shutdown line works.
All signs point to the coach’s intention to ice a shutdown line comprised of Danault between Anderson and Evans. A punishing forecheck, defensive responsibility and an advantage on the draw on either side of the ice in the defensive zone.
Smart. Assuming they work together.
Jake Evans has functioned as the third line centreman for most of the season but he’s used to being thrown into a variety of roles. This line would have the responsibility to shut down one of Tampa’s top six lines, while Suzuki’s line will see the other.
If this line works, it will be a brilliant play by Marty.
The puck drops in just a few hours. These five keys will determine how far the Habs can go.
Hab At Her 