July 11, 2023
On July 3rd, the Montreal Canadiens signed restricted free agent Rafael Harvey-Pinard to a two-year, one-way contract worth $2.2M and carrying an AAV of $1.1M. Today they locked down newly acquired RFA Alex Newhook for a four-year contract worth $11.6M and with an AAV of $2.9M.
Both deals are smart money moves for the Habs, and this summer is all about smart money.
Rafael Harvey-Pinard
RHP, a 24-year-old who hails from Saguenay, Quebec, was a seventh-round draft pick in 2019. A small man (5’9″ and 181 lbs) who plays a bigger game, Harvey-Pinard has taken the honest developmental path with the Canadiens organization. After his junior career, RHP spent three seasons with the Laval Rocket, two of which were split with time in Montreal. The kid finished the season with the Habs last year, and managed 14 goals and 6 assists in 34 games.
Can Harvey-Pinard keep up that pace? It’s unlikely. Prorated, that pace would have him finish a full season with 34 goals and 14 assists. That may be more lofty than any of us should expect. But RHP has demonstrated he belongs in the NHL, and that he can contribute throughout the line-up. He’s the swiss army knife player every roster can use.
Many pundits expected Kent Hughes to pay a higher price on a longer term, but the Habs needed this smart money deal. Hughes is still trying to offload the monstrous contracts left by his predecessor.
Until Hughes can offload contracts, the forward group is jam-packed. Hughes may be forced to deal with them in-house if he cannot find a trade partner before the season opens. That may mean placing a veteran or two on waivers, or it may also mean assigning to Laval the younger players who can go without waivers while he finds ways to offload the veterans. RHP is one such player – not yet waiver eligible and can be left to cook in Laval while also earning an NHL salary on his one-way deal.
Hughes would also like to maintain some cap flexibility by delaying Carey Price’s assignment to LTIR until after the season begins. Having the option to demote RHP, if only temporarily, supports the approach to Price’s contract.
In this two-year deal, RHP will have time to prove himself for his next contract that will eat up UFA years. If he can continue to produce, his payday will come. Smart money for both parties.
Alex Newhook
Newhook is almost exactly two years younger than RHP, and has enjoyed a completely different trajectory. He was selected in the first round at 16th overall by the Colorado Avalanche in the 2019 draft. He spent two years at Boston College before signing with Colorado, and then split two years between the Avs and their farm team before his first complete NHL season last year.
Newhook is also a small player (5’10” and 190 lbs) who plays what Coach Martin St. Louis described as a “heavy” game. He is a skilled centreman who may be more suited to play wing in Montreal. Last season he had 14 goals and 16 assists in 82 games. The Habs hope that he can grow into a top-6 forward with the Canadiens where he will have more opportunity and less pressure to perform in the immediate future.
Newhook was acquired by Montreal in what we will forever remember as the “Dach-like deal” that Hughes said he would be looking for this off-season. The trade similarities continue in the contract extension.
Just like Dach, the Habs can bet on Newhook reaching his potential at a reasonable AAV while they are in rebuild mode and development is a priority. Newhook gets a nice bump in salary while also getting a four-year runway to prove his value before his next contract comes due. Smart money for both parties.
This afternoon Newhook met with the media, via Zoom, for the first time since the trade to Montreal. Little was learned but a few things are worth noting.
Newhook was asked about his initial reaction to the trade, and he spoke to the emotional element. Colorado was the team that drafted him, his first NHL team, the team that he enjoyed a Stanley Cup run with. But the next reaction is what is important. He said he felt a lot of excitement about coming to a younger team “with a bit more opportunity.”
If fans are worried about him shirking responsibility, that’s not a fair characterization. Newhook said there were times he felt like he should have been given more opportunity, as well as times when he felt he could have done more with the opportunities he was given. He said he had not reached the goals he had set for himself last year, and that he is looking forward to a fresh start.
When asked about his goals for the season, Newhook said he hopes to bring speed and skill, and pointed out that while he is still a young player he’s been through the experience of a cup run. He said he wants to come in and play, and “make the most of it from the start.”
Newhook was asked whether he had talked with Coach Martin St. Louis since the trade. This might have been the time when Newhook was most animated, confirming he had spoken to Marty right after the trade. “Everyone loves him there… everyone has seen what he has done with the younger guys… I can’t wait to play under him.”
Newhook also responded to a question about his previous relationship with Kent Hughes. He clarified that he had been represented by Hughes’ former agency, but not by Hughes directly. He added that he played with Hughes’ son in junior hockey. His summary was reminiscent of the Dach presser last year around this time. “He believes in me, and it’s great to have someone who believes in you.”
Let’s hope that belief pays off.
Smart Money is the Mantra
Later this afternoon, the Nashville Predators signed Denis Gurianov to a one-year contract worth $850K. The Habs would have liked to have another look at Gurianov at that price. He was not qualified as a restricted free agent, but reports out of Montreal suggest Hughes would have liked to circle back with an offer after clearing cap space. If it had worked out that way it could have been smart money for both parties, but Gurianov was done waiting.
That’s the situation in which the Habs find themselves. There are real limits to how they can deal because they are bound by contracts they have not yet been able to offload.
The Habs are already $3.5M over the cap, with three RFAs left to extend in Jesse Ylonen, Nicolas Beaudin and Lucas Condotta. All three may be Laval bound, but Hughes still has to find that $3.5M in cap space before the season begins if he wants to delay placing Price on LTIR. The obvious solution is to trade a veteran forward, or two, or three. Trade partners are not as obvious.
Extending Rafael Harvey-Pinard and Alex Newhoook were smart money deals for the Habs. But for his next move Kent Hughes really needs to stretch his smarts and offload a contract.
Hab At Her 
The Newhook deal is often compared to the Dach deal but that’s an odd comparison given that Dach played with much less talent than Newhook while producing similar pt totals. Feels more like spin than good analysis. However, I know nothing about Newhook so I’m taking a wait and see approach.
Question tho – I don’t understand the whole LTIR thing. What do you mean by delaying putting Price on LTIR wrt being over the cap?
LikeLike
Newhook is compared to Dach for several reasons. Both were young players having high potential that wasn’t being realized on their current teams. For Dach, his team was imploding and he didn’t have a developmental environment to grown in. For Newhook, his team was in win now mode, and needed him to be 2C ready too early. The other comparison is a draft window trade where the Habs turned over draft picks for players who were more suited to the window of their developing core. Now the new similarity is a 4-year show me contract that takes them to within a year of UFA status.
The LTIR thing… if they wait until the season starts to put Price on LTIR they can accumulate space on a daily basis over the season. A more complex explanation will have to come from someone else, but ultimately they gain more cap flexibility for the long haul if they wait.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Lol… I really don’t understand the LTIR in the NHL.
I was meaning more about the skills/potential of Newhook vs Dach rather than their respective draft placement or contract status. I’m very curious (and hopeful) to see if Newhook is on the same level as Dach because I liked the Dach move a lot when HuGo pulled it off. It addressed a lot of long standing needs for the Habs at the time and Chicago was a s***show. I don’t see that, superficially, with Newhook but I figure HuGo deserves some trust given what they’ve done.
And agreed kcwillettfibreopca, another good read Lori. Glad I stumbled on your site.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I don’t think folks are comparing the skill set. The comparison is the approach Hughes took to land a good young player who wasn’t fitting with his team. On the ice, I would say that Dach is way more likely to become a full-time centre than Newhook. Both have top six potential, but Dach will be more valuable is my guess. Both are strong in transition. Dach is a big body and will use it. Newhook’s speed will stand out.
And… thanks for reading.
LikeLike
Completely agree Lori. HuGo are running this organization very smartly with calculated risks e.g. I think the David… R…. 😉 pick will look like a steal sooner than later based on some analyses I’ve read from European fans
Oh – just read Newhook is a Newf…. I’m loving the trade now lol 🙂
LikeLike
Hughes-Gorton Duo have been hamstrung by the veteran contracts yet have managed to land some terrific looking young talent. It’s never been more difficult to swing trades in the NHL, Jarmo Kekalainen said, a product of the flattened salary cap that leaves little room to get creative. That’s tough news for a GM who’d like to thin his group of forwards, if possible.
“The whole league is pretty much capped out right now,” Kekalainen said. “You could probably move dollar for dollar, so … we’re not going to be getting our summer vacation started anytime soon. Things have quieted down a bit, but the phones are still working.”
Unfortunately, Montreal’s GM Hughes is in a similar boat and will have his hands full trying to move veteran signed non-productive fat contracts this year or next. We have a terrific group of young prospects entering Laval this year and next. The D-men group is so very strong and promising, exciting.
Good article again Lori. Thank you. Cheers
LikeLike
A thing that has not been discussed enough is the HuGo ability to add despite the system’s inability to remove contracts. When Gorton was in NY, he was able to move out a ton of contracts fairly quickly. The cap world is just too congested for that to be possible for MTL. But they’ve managed to whittle away while continuing to be creative in adding actual young players, as well as assets through deals like the Monahan trade. Some things just can’t happen until the cap starts rising again. By then the Habs will be in good shape.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Agree, thanks Lori for reply
LikeLike
I love what Hughes has done so far this year. No big surprise yet but he is managing the circumstances very well in my opinion. If he is able to swing a trade or two life will be rosy but I still think he may have to use the waiver option at training camp. I’m hoping for a stronger year but it may be hard to gain ground on improving rivals. In the end another good draft pick won’t be a bad thing.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I think a realistic approach to moving bodies is a trade for Hoffman this summer, perhaps with a piece coming back that they’re comfortable waiving and sending to Laval, a deadline trade for Dvorak when they can maximize the return, and maybe Armia is waived at the end of camp if he has not truly earned his spot.
LikeLiked by 1 person
HuGo really seems to understand that continued success is not just about draft picks and asset management anymore. It’s primarily about setting a realistic cap structure and being able to fit in those vaunted assets into the structure so that you can have continued success instead of a rebuild-success-rebuild cycle
LikeLiked by 2 people
Hughes is setting up the team for long-term, and still has 2-3 years to see how his burgeoning crop of prospects will advance. He can’t keep them all, but if they develop well he may be able to swing a major deal. Dach and Newhook are similar to the one that Bergevin made to bring in Suzuki. No, he wasn’t an awful GM, just felt the pressure to ice a playoff contender each season. Hit and miss, you never know. But Hughes is smart in dealing with prospects. Much cheaper, not saddled with new mid-large contracts that are difficult to move. On that note I really hope Gally can play healthy this year.
And this season may be the first, true chance for the organization to assess the prospect pool IF the team can stay healthy. Teams like Colorado took 6 years to build a Cup winner from a last-place team. Avoiding contracts that are too rich, Hughes is banking on depth for now too, the team’s greatest asset. We must just be patient and enjoy the progress, but bringing in Dach and Newhook means Hughes knows he needs support for Suzy and Cole now then start to rotate in talent after. By not getting sucked into $12 million contracts he’ll be able to keep 2-3 more players he wants.
LikeLiked by 1 person