Approaching the 4N break, key Habs storylines could become business

February 2, 2025

The Montreal Canadiens have just 5 games between now and the Four Nations break. 51 games into the 2024-25 season, the Habs have a record of 24-22-5 and have already been on a roller coaster of storylines.

From high hopes in training camp to heartbreaker injuries, from giving up on one rookie and seeing others thrive, from calling out the coach to praising him, from basement placement to a red hot streak, and from a finally healthy roster to freak injuries, the season has not been short on storylines.

On the cusp of the 4N break, trade action has picked up, and there are three Habs storylines that should provoke GM Kent Hughes to consider doing business.

The Canadiens face a giant decision about Jake Evans.

Depending on where you see the Habs in their rebuild, you’re either all in on signing Jake Evans or all in on dealing him at the deadline.

GM Kent Hughes has to be balancedin his assessment. His goal is to help the team grow gradually into consistent contention, year over year. That’s what makes the Evans call a big one.

Hughes has to be concerned about both dollars and term, but also be realistic about how long Evans will be the best option for the role he’s in, and how mobile his contract will be when he ceases to be that guy.

Let’s get something straight. Jake Evans is a fourth line centreman on a contending team. He’s reliable enough to play up the line up in emergencies, but he’s a 4C. He’s also a penalty kill specialist and the kind of veteran every good team needs.

He will also be 29 years old when his next contract begins.

The calculation for Kent Hughes goes like this: Will the contract Evans fetches for what he’s doing right now be tradable when he’s no longer able to do that?

Evans is having a career year, despite having settled down to his normal self , and this summer will be his chance to earn the best contract of his career. He’s a smart guy who has done the math. Evans is getting paid in both dollars and term, and the team that wants to manage one of them will likely pay on the other.

Is Evans the veteran you want to overpay? If Mikko Rantanen becomes available on the free agent market, he will only truly be available to teams who have been very responsible with their other veteran contracts. Which veteran do you want to pay? The consistent 4C or the top line playoff producer?

Of course, the Hughes decision is not between Rantanen and Evans, but the point is simple. Even with the cap about to rise, the big bucks are still best spent on high end talent. At the same time, reliable depth is essential. Striking the right balance is the difference between true contenders and first round exits.

The Devils have been rumoured to be interested in Evans. If the Habs added one of their own young but lesser defenders, could Simon Nemec be pried out of Jersey?

Again, the Hughes decision is not between Evans and Nemec, but the point is obvious. The right offer makes Evans clearly expendable on March 8th.

The Owen Beck call up might be an indication that Hughes is assessing options.

The Habs defense group is an incomplete puzzle.

Since assuming the GM role, Hughes has been busy shaping his group of blue liners. Drafting Hutson, Reinbacher, Engstrom and others. Trading for Matheson and Barron, and then Carrier. Investing in Mailloux. Along with the guys Hughes inherited, that’s a complete crew. If everyone can reach their ceiling and stay healthy, that is.

It seems like where the Habs D is concerned, it’s two steps forward and one back.

How will Reinbacher’s development be impacted by missing most of a season due to a significant injury? Guhle is surely a top-line defender, but will we ever see him play a complete season? Can the Habs afford to move on from Matheson until they can rely on Guhle to be in the line-up? Will Mailloux develop into a complete enough defender to be trusted at the NHL level?

With all of these questions, and with Savard on the decline, Kent Hughes should be scouring the market for a young but proven right shot defender that is either an upgrade on what they have coming or a placeholder while the kids get ready. Did I mention Simon Nemec?

The Mailloux call up is probably an indication that he’s getting a chance to prove he can be their best option before they explore others.

Maybe the Habs depth is not that deep.

With Evans having a career year, Gallagher getting off to a hot start, and Anderson finding a new version of himself, the Habs depth was looking impressive. An effective second line dropped guys to their proper chairs, and the coach was able to run four lines and feel good about it.

Emil Heineman’s injury should not have hurt as much as it did.

The next man up mentality has not worked out. Pezzetta has been ineffective. Harvey-Pinard is not even convincing as an NHLer right now. Calling Beck up to play wing is questionable. Even if the Habs could stay in the mix, their depth is insufficient to enter the playoffs.

Hughes has decisions to make about his bottom six unrestricted free agents and, contrary to the views of some pundits, I would argue those decisions remain even if they’re in the mix.

If there is a market for Christian Dvorak or Joel Armia, the Habs should pounce and look for a better fitting replacement – where the competitive window is concerned – in the bottom six. The Habs are not deep enough for the term “own rental” to creep in. If, by some miracle, there is interest in an expensive veteran, that’s a call Hughes has to take.

The Habs are still in build mode. That assessment was served up by the guys who couldn’t replace Heineman on the fourth line.

In a few days there will be a break in business for the Four Nations tournament. It’s clear some teams want to settle some things before that break rather than waiting for the trade deadline.

Three storylines – Evans, the D, and the depth – should provoke Hughes to be open for business. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a deal before the 4N Freeze kicks in.